Under the Radar – Black Friday Edition
Leave a commentNovember 23, 2012 by ryanoudoak
After spending a week being a step ahead of Vegas, I spent the last week just off the mark and finished with a “bringing back to earth” record of 3-6-2. Hopefully everyone enjoyed these picks strictly for entertainment purposes only and had not made the Under the Radar picks part of their retirement plan. I had many close calls throughout the weekend that could have swung it in the other direction like Tulsa beating UCF by 2 when I had predicted a four point victory (spread was -3); and I picked Idaho to cover +6.5 and they lost to UTSA at home by 7. But thems are the breaks and Vegas is in this business because they know more about these games and teams than any of us ever possibly could. Along with the close calls there were two ties showing us that Vegas was really on the mark this week. It is tough to be successful on weekends like that. Overall, my yearly mark is 50-35-3 which still has me winning at a 56.8% clip which is not bad.
Without further ado, your week 13 picks, Friday edition.
As always, home team is in bold.
Kent St. -9 over Ohio – Kent St. wins 28-6 (pred. Kent St. 35-21) WIN
Why the spread is too low: Kent St. has been one of the most exciting teams that nobody has seen this year. They have an exciting running attack that has won 9 straight games, including handing Rutgers their only loss, and are poised to play Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship next week regardless of what happens this week. Ohio’s injuries have been mounting and a once promising season has fallen apart losing 3 of their last 4 games.
Why Ohio may cover: Frank Solich will bring his team in with a lot of heart and the players will play hard for him despite the recent disappointments. Kent St. doesn’t have much to play for in this one and may be happy just with a close win.
Eastern Michigan +21 over Northern Illinois – N. Ill. wins 49-7 (pred. N. Ill. 35-17) LOSS
Why the spread is too high: EMU has been improving over the last few weeks. It is something that has been difficult to see if you haven’t been squinting your eyes just right, but their win over Western Michigan on the road last week was a culmination of the offense and defense units both playing better. The improvement isn’t enough for an upset here, but they should be able to keep it within the number against a team that doesn’t have much to play for and is preparing for the MAC Championship next week.
Why Northern Illinois may cover: Let us not forget that EMU was one of the worst (if not the worst) team in football for the majority of the year. Northern Illinois lost in the first week to Iowa and has run of 10 straight. They are the far superior team in this contest.
Bowling Green -10 over Buffalo – BGSU wins 21-7 (pred. BGSU 17-3) WIN
Why the spread is too low: Bowling Green lost to Kent St. last week to get eliminated from the MAC Championship after winning 7 straight games. The Falcons have one of the stingiest defenses on the year and played Florida tough in the swamp to start the year. Expect them to bounce back and be able to hold Buffalo’s offense in check this week.
Why Buffalo may cover: Buffalo gave Georgia a fight for the first 2 quarters in week 1, which was a banner week for the MAC all the way around. They have won 3 straight since losing to Toledo to miss out on a bowl game this year. They are fighting hard through the end of the season.
Stay tuned for Saturday’s Under the Radar Picks.
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