BCS Playoff — Another All-SEC Final Produces Back-to-Back Championships for the Tide

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November 26, 2012 by ryanoudoak

This is the third edition of our look at how our proposed playoff would look using the current BCS Standings. Of course, the BCS is a work in progress until it is complete next Sunday, but we can get a fairly clear picture of what things will look like this late in the year. One thing that will be different will be that the loser of the SEC Championship will surely drop which could affect the at-large teams involved in the process. However, it is still likely to be two at-large teams from the SEC regardless because of how jam-packed the top-10 of the BCS rankings still is with SEC schools. We will trudge on with both Alabama and Georgia in their respective rankings and include them both in this week’s playoff preview. The other thing to continually note is that Notre Dame is still considered at-large. That is not meant to be a slight, Notre Dame fan, but this playoff format is conference champion-centric and there just isn’t anything else to do with the Irish and their non-conference affiliation.

The other interesting development is at the bottom of the BCS top-25 and the effect it has on the conference champions represented in the playoff. The Big East really had a bad weekend and played their way out of the playoff altogether. Of course we still have a week for things to develop, but it is not looking good for Big East inclusion at this point. Right now the Big East teams are ranked behind two MAC teams and two WAC teams.

So let’s take a look at the playoff seeding and the BCS rankings:

Playoff Seeds			BCS Standings
1	Alabama		At-large	1	Notre Dame
2	Kansas St.		SEC	2	Alabama
3	Stanford		At-large	3	Georgia
4	Nebraska		At-large	4	Florida
5	Florida St.		At-large	5	Oregon
6	Kent St.		Big XII	6	Kansas State
7	Boise St.			7	LSU
8	Utah St.		Pac-12	8	Stanford
9	Notre Dame			9	Texas A&M
10	Georgia			10	South Carolina
11	Florida			11	Oklahoma
12	Oregon		B1G	12	Nebraska
			ACC	13	Florida State
				14	Clemson
				15	Oregon State
				16	UCLA
			MAC	17	Kent State
				18	Texas
				19	Michigan
			MWC	20	Boise State
				21	Northern Illinois
				22	Northwestern
				23	Oklahoma State
			WAC	24	Utah State
				25	San Jose State

 

The MAC made the strongest move this week, as Kent St. moved from #23 to #17. That moves them from the 8^th seed to the 6^th seed; meanwhile, the Big East is nowhere in sight as MWC Boise St. holds serve at the 7^th seed and WAC-leading Utah St. moves into the 8^th seed. The only other move from last week is a swap in position between Florida St. and Nebraska which is significant since the ‘Huskers now get the coveted first round bye. The change in position is courtesy of the Seminoles loss to the Gators over the weekend. Here are your first round match ups and, remember, the conference champions host the first round at home:

Oregon at Florida St.

Florida at Kent St.

Georgia at Boise St.

Notre Dame at Utah St.

 

I’d love to find a reason to move the Golden Flash into the second round, but the reality of it is that Florida is physical up front and has the 6^th ranked rushing defense on the year. Kent St. can’t pass the ball and relies on the excellent running of their duo in the backfield of Trayion Durham and Dri Archer. They are both excellent runners and each have over 1000 yards on the season, but the Florida D would be too much. I do think that the Gators would struggle on offense enough to make this a competitive match up, but the weather would have to be ice bowl-esque in order for the Flash to pull the upset. Georgia would catch Boise St. in a down year on the blue turf and tame that home field advantage. Utah St. and Notre Dame would be a fantastic defensive match up, but I just believe in the Irish too much to not think they’d move on. That would be a really fun match up of excellent coaches, however. Oregon and Florida St. would be the most interesting game of the first round. I would give the nod to Oregon because I think they are a bit more disciplined than Florida St. I do think the Seminoles’ defense would be able to slow down the offensive attack of the Ducks and it would be a competitive game. Ultimately, it would be errors made by the offense that would doom the ‘Noles.

After the first round and reseeding, your second round games (on New Year’s Day) would look like this:

(5) Notre Dame vs. (4) Nebraska – Orange Bowl (12 pm)

(8) Oregon vs. (1) Alabama – Sugar Bowl (3 pm)

(7) Florida vs. (2) Kansas St. – Cotton Bowl (6 pm)

(6) Georgia vs. (3) Stanford – Fiesta Bowl (9 pm)

 

The Orange Bowl gives us two storied programs and a great match between the run defense of the Irish and the dynamic running game of the ‘Huskers. Taylor Martinez gives Nebraska a two-dimensional attack and this would be a great quarterback contest between Martinez and Everett Golson for Notre Dame. Ultimately, I have more faith in the Irish defense and would move them along in this game. The Cotton Bowl matches two teams with some chinks in the armor. The loss to Baylor by Kansas St. two weekends ago still does not make total sense. Clearly the Wildcat defense is susceptible to a strong offensive attack when we were made to believe for most of the year that they weren’t. I don’t think Florida has the offense, ultimately, to exploit the defense further and I have faith that Colin Klein will be able to bounce back; the Wildcats move on. In the Fiesta Bowl, we find Georgia and Stanford which are two of the hottest teams in the nation as we move toward the end of the year. Between September 27^th and October 13^th, we saw three losses in three weeks between these two teams, but neither has lost since and they have both added some impressive wins over top-ranked teams. They are both physical up front and can run the ball. The passing attack of Georgia is more dynamic than that of Stanford, but the Cardinal are more disciplined than the Dawgs. We will know more about Georgia after this weekend, but I am going to give the early nod to Georgia believing more in their big play ability to be the difference.

Finally, in the Sugar Bowl, Oregon matches up with Alabama. Oregon rebounded well this past weekend against the Beavers of Oregon St. and showed that their game against Stanford may have been a mere aberration. Both the Tide and the Ducks have a loss on their resume, but neither loss is egregious. I still believe that Saban and DC Keith Smart can use their front seven to control Oregon in much the same way that Stanford did and Alabama did against Michigan earlier in the year. Playing Manziel and the Aggies and seeing the type of playmaker that Oregon brings in QB Marcus Mariota helps as well. Alabama gets the win here in a quarterfinal game that is finals-worthy. Your semi-final match ups:

(5) Notre Dame vs. (1) Alabama – Gator Bowl

(6) Georgia vs. (2) Kansas St. – Rose Bowl

 

As a reminder, the semi-finals would be played approximately two weeks after the quarterfinals are played on New Year’s Day. This would push it about a week further than the current BCS schedule goes. In the first matchup in the Gator Bowl, you have the probably BCS Title game that we will enjoy in a few short weeks. This will be a classic matchup, should it happen, between two of the best coaches in the game. HC Brian Kelly of the Irish has a proven track record in playoff formats from his time with Grand Valley St.  No coach today has the Championship credentials of Nick Saban of Alabama. Both teams have flaws, as do all teams this year, and both teams like to attack with a running game that is augmented with a controlled passing game. The Tide has proven to be susceptible to a solid passing attack which I am not sure you can say that Notre Dame has as of now. Alabama is very good against the run and the battle in the trenches when both of these teams have the football will be very contentious. The good discipline for both of these teams will put on emphasis on play makers and right now I think that Alabama has an advantage in this area. I give the slightest of edges to Alabama as of now and would move them past Notre Dame and into the final.

The second match up between Georgia and Kansas St. gives a slightly different look than the first semi-final. Georgia has the most balanced attack of any of the teams in the semi-final and Aaron Murray is the most complete quarterback of the bunch. Colin Klein for Kansas St. is a handful and will challenge the Bulldogs in ways they have not been challenged this year so far. A big difference in this one could be the discipline that the Wildcats are able to play with. However, I think that the talent and athleticism of Georgia along with the fact that they have a more complete offensive attack would be too much for Kansas St. in this one and would move Georgia into the final for a rematch against Alabama.

(6) Georgia vs. (1) Alabama – Championship Game

 

So we have another all-SEC Championship game. This one, unlike last year, would be a bit easier to swallow since other competitors had a shot to reach the finals. This is the way it should be. The Championship Game would be played either on the Saturday between the NFL Conference Championships or could be played on the Saturday of Super Bowl Weekend. As for the game, we will obviously know more about how these teams match up after next Saturday when they actually play on the field. Georgia, with Aaron Murray, brings the type of attack that has given the Alabama defense fits this year. DC Keith Smart will have had time to make adjustments to prepare for the Bulldogs and will be plenty familiar with them as SEC foes. Georgia has a physical defense that is capable of matching up nicely with the Alabama attack and would force them to be effective in both the run and pass. Alabama has shown the ability to attack in this way and AJ McCarron is growing with confidence with each week behind center.

What worries me in this matchup for Georgia is there propensity to shoot themselves in the foot with penalties and turnovers. You cannot afford mistakes against a Nick Saban coached team, particularly when a championship is at stake. Although Georgia may be more talented, I think that Alabama will outplay them this Saturday and would outplay them in a National Title Game. Alabama would defend their National Title and bring home the hardware for a second consecutive year. Alabama wins 34-24.

Alabama would certainly earn a Championship under this scenario as they would have to knock off Oregon, Notre Dame, and Georgia in back-to-back-to-back games. As it stands, they will still have to beat two of these teams in order to win that National Title.